:root{--bg:#f5f6f7;--surface:#fff;--ink:#1b2430;--muted:#5b6573;--rule:#d8dde3;--link:#24527a;--fact:#24527a;--fact-tint:#edf2f7;--opinion:#93560f;--opinion-tint:#f8f0e4;--forecast:#5a4890;--forecast-tint:#f1eef8;--hit:#2c6e49;--miss:#a33a2a;--serif:"Noto Serif JP", "Hiragino Mincho ProN", "Yu Mincho", serif;--sans:"Noto Sans JP", "Hiragino Sans", "Yu Gothic UI", system-ui, sans-serif;color-scheme:light}@media (prefers-color-scheme:dark){:root:not([data-theme=light]){--bg:#12171e;--surface:#182029;--ink:#e4e8ec;--muted:#9aa4b0;--rule:#2c3640;--link:#8db6dc;--fact:#8db6dc;--fact-tint:#1b2733;--opinion:#e0a75e;--opinion-tint:#2a2218;--forecast:#b4a5e6;--forecast-tint:#231f33;--hit:#79c79a;--miss:#ef8f80;color-scheme:dark}}:root[data-theme=dark]{--bg:#12171e;--surface:#182029;--ink:#e4e8ec;--muted:#9aa4b0;--rule:#2c3640;--link:#8db6dc;--fact:#8db6dc;--fact-tint:#1b2733;--opinion:#e0a75e;--opinion-tint:#2a2218;--forecast:#b4a5e6;--forecast-tint:#231f33;--hit:#79c79a;--miss:#ef8f80;color-scheme:dark}*,:before,:after{box-sizing:border-box}html{-webkit-text-size-adjust:100%}body{background:var(--bg);color:var(--ink);font-family:var(--sans);font-feature-settings:"palt" 0;overflow-wrap:anywhere;margin:0;font-size:16px;line-height:1.85}:lang(en) body,body:lang(en){line-height:1.65}a{color:var(--link);text-underline-offset:.2em;text-decoration-thickness:1px}a:hover{text-decoration-thickness:2px}:focus-visible{outline:2px solid var(--link);outline-offset:2px;border-radius:2px}img{max-width:100%;height:auto}.num,td.num,.ev-value{font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}.wrap{max-width:1120px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 16px}@media (width>=720px){.wrap{padding:0 32px}}.site-header{border-bottom:1px solid var(--rule);background:var(--surface)}.site-header .wrap{flex-wrap:wrap;align-items:baseline;gap:4px 28px;padding-top:14px;padding-bottom:12px;display:flex}.wordmark{font-family:var(--serif);color:var(--ink);letter-spacing:.01em;font-size:1.25rem;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.site-nav{flex-wrap:wrap;gap:2px 18px;font-size:.875rem;display:flex}.site-nav a{color:var(--muted);min-height:32px;padding:6px 0;text-decoration:none;display:inline-block}.site-nav a[aria-current=page],.site-nav a:hover{color:var(--ink)}.lang-switch{margin-left:auto;font-size:.875rem}.preview-banner{background:var(--forecast-tint);color:var(--forecast);border-bottom:1px solid var(--rule);padding:8px 0;font-size:.875rem}main{padding:40px 0 72px}h1,h2,h3{font-family:var(--serif);letter-spacing:.01em;font-weight:700;line-height:1.45}h1{max-width:30em;margin:0 0 16px;font-size:clamp(1.6rem,1.2rem + 1.6vw,2.3rem)}h2{margin:48px 0 14px;font-size:1.3rem}h3{margin:28px 0 10px;font-size:1.05rem}p{margin:0 0 1em}.lede{color:var(--muted);max-width:38em}.prose{max-width:38em}.small{color:var(--muted);font-size:.875rem}.article-list{max-width:46em;margin:0;padding:0;list-style:none}.article-list li{border-top:1px solid var(--rule);padding:22px 0}.article-list li:last-child{border-bottom:1px solid var(--rule)}.article-list a.title{font-family:var(--serif);color:var(--ink);font-size:1.15rem;font-weight:700;line-height:1.5;text-decoration:none}.article-list a.title:hover{text-decoration:underline}.article-list .q{color:var(--muted);margin:6px 0 0;font-size:.9375rem}.meta{color:var(--muted);flex-wrap:wrap;gap:2px 14px;margin-bottom:6px;font-size:.8125rem;display:flex}.badge{border:1px solid;border-radius:4px;padding:2px 8px;font-size:.75rem;line-height:1.4;display:inline-block}.badge.preview{color:var(--forecast)}.notices{gap:8px;max-width:46em;margin:20px 0 8px;display:grid}.notice{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--rule);border-radius:6px;margin:0;padding:10px 14px;font-size:.875rem;line-height:1.7}.notice.forecast{border-color:var(--forecast);color:var(--forecast);background:var(--forecast-tint);font-weight:700}.question{font-family:var(--serif);max-width:32em;margin:8px 0 0;font-size:1.2rem;line-height:1.7}.ledger{margin:0;padding:0;list-style:none}.claim{border-top:1px solid var(--rule);grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr);gap:10px 40px;padding:18px 0;display:grid}@media (width>=1000px){.claim{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,38em) minmax(0,1fr)}}.claim-text{border-left:3px solid var(--k);margin:0;padding:2px 0 2px 16px}.claim-kind{color:var(--k);margin-bottom:2px;font-size:.75rem;font-weight:700;display:block}.claim.fact{--k:var(--fact)}.claim.ai_opinion{--k:var(--opinion)}.claim.ai_opinion .claim-text{background:var(--opinion-tint);border-radius:0 6px 6px 0;padding:10px 14px 10px 16px}.claim.prediction{--k:var(--forecast)}.claim.prediction .claim-text{background:var(--forecast-tint);border-left-style:dashed;border-radius:0 6px 6px 0;padding:10px 14px 10px 16px}.ev-list{color:var(--muted);gap:8px;margin:0;padding:0 0 0 19px;font-size:.8125rem;line-height:1.55;list-style:none;display:grid}@media (width>=1000px){.ev-list{padding:2px 0 0}}.ev{grid-template-columns:auto 1fr;align-items:baseline;gap:0 10px;display:grid}.ev-value{color:var(--ink);white-space:nowrap;font-size:.9375rem;font-weight:700}.ev-value.event{white-space:normal;font-size:.8125rem;font-weight:400}.ev-name{color:var(--ink)}.ev-detail{grid-column:2}.ev-more{color:var(--muted);margin-top:8px;padding-left:19px;font-size:.8125rem}@media (width>=1000px){.ev-more{padding-left:0}}.ev-more summary{cursor:pointer;min-height:32px;color:var(--link);align-items:center;display:flex}.ev-more .ev-list{margin-top:4px;padding-left:0}.ev:target{background:var(--fact-tint);border-radius:4px}.scenario-title{font-family:var(--sans);color:var(--forecast);margin:22px 0 4px;font-size:.9375rem}.counter,.one-liner{max-width:38em}.one-liner{font-family:var(--serif);border-top:1px solid var(--rule);margin-top:40px;padding-top:20px;font-size:1.1rem}.made-with{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--rule);max-width:46em;color:var(--muted);border-radius:6px;margin-top:48px;padding:16px;font-size:.875rem}.made-with dl{grid-template-columns:max-content 1fr;gap:2px 16px;margin:8px 0 0;display:grid}.made-with dt{color:var(--ink)}.made-with dd{margin:0}.table-wrap{max-width:100%;overflow-x:auto}table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;font-size:.875rem}th,td{text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid var(--rule);vertical-align:top;padding:8px 12px 8px 0}th{color:var(--muted);font-size:.8125rem;font-weight:700}td.num,th.num{text-align:right}.outcome{white-space:nowrap;font-weight:700}.outcome.hit{color:var(--hit)}.outcome.miss{color:var(--miss)}.outcome.partial{color:var(--opinion)}.outcome.pending{color:var(--muted);font-weight:400}.chart{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--rule);border-radius:6px;max-width:760px;margin:16px 0 8px;padding:12px 8px 4px}.chart svg{width:100%;height:auto;display:block}.chart .axis{stroke:var(--rule)}.chart .tick{fill:var(--muted);font-size:11px;font-family:var(--sans)}.chart .line{fill:none;stroke:var(--fact);stroke-width:2px}.chart .dot-prov{fill:var(--surface);stroke:var(--fact);stroke-width:1.5px}.data-grid{grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fill,minmax(260px,1fr));gap:0 32px;margin:0;padding:0;list-style:none;display:grid}.data-grid li{border-top:1px solid var(--rule);padding:10px 0;font-size:.9375rem}.site-footer{border-top:1px solid var(--rule);background:var(--surface);color:var(--muted);padding:28px 0 40px;font-size:.8125rem}.site-footer p{max-width:60em}.site-footer nav{flex-wrap:wrap;gap:4px 18px;margin-bottom:12px;display:flex}.site-footer nav a{color:var(--muted)}@media (prefers-reduced-motion:reduce){*{scroll-behavior:auto!important}}